Victorian State Election 2018: Preferences in Pascoe Vale!

So, with the Upper House all done, I thought I’d turn to my local district, Pascoe Vale, and see what’s on the menu.

Our options this year appear to be as follows:

• Francesco Timpano – Independent
• Genevieve Hamilton – Liberal Party
• Lizzie Blandthorn – Australian Labor Party
• Phil Jackson – Australian Greens
• Oscar Yildiz – Independent
• Graeme Linsell – Animal Justice Party
• Gerry Beaton – Victorian Socialists
• John Kavanagh – Independent

This is a typical People’s Republic of Moreland ballot paper, with a wide selection of left-leaning choices, a handful of independents, and a token Liberal Party candidate who is not going to get very far, poor thing, but has to take one for the team regardless.

I’ll be reviewing our lovely independent candidates shortly, but first, let’s take a quick look at who is preferencing whom among the major parties.

Genevieve Hamilton – Liberal Party

The Liberals know they don’t have a snowflake’s hope in a globally-warmed hell, so they aren’t trying very hard.  But they always run a candidate so that their loyalists have someone to vote for, and they are probably hoping to wrest the two party preferred envelope back from the Greens.  They have preferenced the three independents, Yildiz, Kavanagh and Timpano first, followed by the Animal Justice Party.  Then Labor, the Greens, and last of all the Socialists.  Apparently, they would rather preference someone they consider a little bit nutty ahead of the Labor Party, so that’s fun. It’s been their policy to put the Greens after Labor for a while, because they don’t want the Greens winning seats from Labor on Liberal preferences, so no real surprise there.

Lizzie Blandthorn – Australian Labor Party

The ALP has put the Animal Justice Party second, which is making me wonder if they might do dangerously well.  Surely not well enough to overtake the Greens and the Liberal Party, though?  In third place are the Greens, with just enough separation to show that, no, no, no, there is no Labor/Green coalition!  Socialists are in fourth place, followed by Yildiz, Timpano and Kavanagh.  The Liberal party are at the bottom of the ticket.

Phil Jackson – Australian Greens

The Greens also know they aren’t going to win this one, but they want to come a convincing second and give Labor a run for their money.   They have preferenced  Kavanagh second, followed by the ALP, the Victorian Socialists and the Animal Justice Party.  Yildiz is 6th, Francesco is 7th, and the Liberal candidate is dead last.  This is a bit of a surprise – I really thought they would put the Socialists ahead of Labor, given that Labor is their main competition for this seat.  (My quick scan of their how to vote cards in other regions suggests that they are putting Liberal last most of the time, unless there is a party like the DLP or the Shooters and Fishers, or a really nutty independent that needs the spot.  They also seem to be consistently putting the ALP ahead of the Socialists, which is a surprise.)

Graeme Linsell – Animal Justice Party

The AJP is still bearing a grudge against the Greens, and has therefore put Labor second and the Greens third.  The Socialists are in fourth place, followed by Kavanagh, Yildiz and Timpano.   You know, nobody seems to like Timpano much – it’s not a good sign.  The Liberal Party is last, yet again.

Gerry Beaton – Victorian Socialists

The Socialists have put the Greens candidate second, followed by Labor.  The Animal Justice Party is in 4th, then we have Kavanagh, Yildiz and Timpano.  (Really, nobody likes Timpano – even the Liberal candidate put him third of the three independents.).  The Liberal Party is lucky last, and nobody is surprised by this.

Look, it’s highly likely that Pascoe Vale will become Labor / Green in the two-party preferred, but unless the Greens pull of something astonishing, it’s going to be a safe Labor win.  Nobody except the Socialists and one of the independents (spoiler!) is putting them ahead of Labor, and while we are pretty red in this part of the world, I don’t think we are red enough to elect a Green, so to speak…

As for the Liberal Party, even if they get to the two-party preferred, everyone except for the independents has put them last.  They are not going to get up.